WAMSI - Fremantle Sea Level - Skill
This hindcast skill was assessed for the period 1985 to 2005 based on 30 member POAMA-2 ensembles. The 30 member ensemble set was created by combining the 3 different versions of the POAMA-2 model consisting of 10 ensemble members each.
Correlation greater than 0.6 is considered to be skilful.
Lag is defined as the period between the month that is used as for the observational predictor and first month of the forecast.
Hindcast skill of the simplified forecast scheme (ie where we only use POAMA prediction of Nino34 SST and Fremantle sea level) is seen to be comparable to that obtained by Hendon and Wang (2009) who used both the POAMA prediction of heat content on the north west shelf and the Nino34 SST prediction from POAMA together with the Fremantle sea level observation. Forecast skill at short lead time is seen to be degraded by the delayed availability of the Fremantle observation, but there is minimal impact at longer lead time because most of the forecast skill derives from the prediction of Nino34 from POAMA.