POAMA SST Forecasts: Skill, case studies and comparison with ECMWF

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR)

Forecast Experiments

Exp	Colour	Purpose	Model	Initialisation	Ensembles	Notes
p15b	Green	POAMA-1.5 operational version	BAM3.0d T47L17, ACOM2	ALI land atmosphere initialisation, old OI ocean assimilation	10-member ensemble, ensembles are perturbed by taking atmosphere initial conditions 6 hours appart	10 members complete
p20a	Blue	POAMA-2 with new assimilation system	BAM3.0d, ACOM2	New PEODAS ocean re-analysis, ALI land atmosphere initialisation	ensembles have same atmospheric initial conditions but different ocean perturbations from the PEODAS system	3 ensembles complete, peodas perturbations for SST were probably too strong
p20x	Purple	Test impact of no assimilation	BAM3.0d, ACOM2	Ocean initial conditions from ocean only run but with strong SST relaxation (1 day time scale) to NCEP SST and 3D T/S relaxation (2 year time scale) to Levitus, ALI land atmosphere initialisation	ensembles are perturbed by taking atmosphere initial conditions 6 hours appart	2 members complete, decided not to use peodas pertubations
ec	Red	ecmwf system 3			10 member ensemble	The lastest ECWMF operational version

 

Skill Comparison

Type Anomaly correlation RMS error Standard deviation Bias Seasonal cycle

Area NINO3.4 NINO 3 NINO 4 IOD IOD East IOD West

 

Individual SST Plume Comparison

Start Year 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981

Area NINO 3.4 NINO 3 NINO 4 IOD IOD East IOD West

 

 

 

 

 

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