Publications related to POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction Systems

2009

Spillman C.M. and Alves O., 2009. Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs 28:197-206.

Spillman C.M., Alves O., Hudson D.A. and Charles A.N., 2009. POAMA SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef: Summer 2008/2009. CAWCR Research Letters, 2:30-34.

Spillman C.M., Alves O., Hudson D.A. and Charles A.N., 2009. New Operational Seasonal SST Products for Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 22:112-114.

Maynard J.A., Johnson J.E., Marshall P.A., Goby G., Schuttenberg H. and Spillman C.M., 2009. A strategic framework for responding to coral bleaching events in a changing climate. Journal of Environmental Management, 44:1-11.

Spillman C.M., Alves O., Hudson D.A. and Charles A.N., 2009: Dynamical Predictions of Summer 2008/2009 SST for the Great Barrier Reef: A Case Study. Marine and Freshwater Research, submitted.

Spillman C.M., Alves O. and Hudson D.A., 2009. Predicting thermal stress for coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef using a coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Coral Reefs, to be submitted.

2008

Marshall, A., O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2008: An enhanced moisture convergence-evaporation feedback mechanism for MJO air/sea interaction. J. Atmos. Sci. Vol. 65, no. 3, pp. 970-986.

G. Wang, O. Alves, D. Hudson, H. Hendon, G. Liu, and F. Tseitkin: 2008, SST skill assessment from the new POAMA-1.5 System. BMRC Research Letter No.8.

L. Shi, O. Alves, H. Hendon, G. Wang and D. Anderson: 2008, The Role of Stochastic Forcing in Ensemble Forecasts of the 1997/98 El Nino. J. Climate (Accepted for publication)

M. Zhao and H. Hendon: 2008, Simulation and prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. (Accepted for publication)

2007

Wang, G. and Hendon, H. H., 2007: Sensitivity of Australian rainfall to inter-El Nino variations. Journal of Climate. Vol. 20, no. 16, pp. 4211-4226.

H. Hendon and G. Wang: 2007, Seasonal Prediction of the Leeuwin Current. CLAVAR Exchanges, Vol. 12, No. 4.

2006

Hendon, H.H., A. Zhong, and O. Alves, 2006: Intrinsic coupled variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (in revision J. Climate).

Waliser, D., K. Weickmann, R. Dole, S. Schubert, O. Alves, C. Jones, M. Newman, H.-L. Pan, A. Roubicek, S. Saha, C. Smith, H. van den Dool, F. Vitart, M. Wheeler, and J. Whitaker, 2006: The experimental MJO prediction project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, April 2006.

2005

Alves. O. and C. Robert, 2005. Tropical Pacific ocean model error covariances from Monte Carlo simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Vol. 131, no. 613, pp. 3643-3658.

Oke, P. R., A. Schiller, D. A. Griffin and G. B. Brassington, 2005: Ensemble data assimilation for an eddy-resolving ocean model of the Australian region, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.]. Vol. 131, no. 613, pp. 3301-3311.

Zhong, A., H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2005: Indian Ocean variability and its association with ENSO in a global coupled model. J. Climate, 18, 3634-3649.

2004 and before

Schiller, A. and J.S. Godfrey, 2003: Indian Ocean Intraseasonal Variability in an Ocean General Circulation Model. J. Clim. Vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 21-39.

Alves, O., G. Wang, A. Zhong, N. Smith, G. Warren, A. Marshall, F. Tzeitkin, and A. Schiller, 2002: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on the Role of the Upper Ocean in Medium and Extended Range Forecasting.

Alves, O., 2001. Ocean initial conditions and ENSO forecasts. Proceedings of the 13th BMRC Modelling Workshop. The climate of Australia and the Indo-Pacific region, Nov 2001.

Feng, M., G. Meyers, S. Wijffels, 2001: Interannual upper ocean variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 4151-4154.

Feng, M. and G. Meyers, 2002: Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean: A two-year time scale of IOD. J. Mar. Res. (submitted).

Godfrey, J.S., E. F. Bradley, P. A. Coppin, L. F Pender, T. J. McDougall, E. W. Schulz and I. Helmond, 1999: Measurements of upper ocean heat and freshwater budgets near a drifting buoy in the equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res.104, 13269-13302

McIntosh, P., 2000: Connecting climate model forecasts with agricultural management systems. Report on a LWRRDC COR5 Workshop. CSIRO Marine Research (informal report), 13pp.

Schiller, A., 1999: How well does a coarse resolution circulation model simulate observed interannual variability in the upper Indian Ocean? Geophys. Res. Letters 26, 1485-1488.

Schiller, A., J. S. Godfrey, P. McIntosh, G. Meyers and R. Fiedler, 2000: Interannual dynamics and thermodynamics of the Indo-Pacific Oceans, J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30, 987-1012.

Schiller, A., 2001: Improving Climate Simulations in the Tropical Oceans. IUTAM Symposium on Advances in Mathematical Modelling of Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics. Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Schiller, A., 2002: Seasonal-to-Interannual Water-Mass Formation in the Upper Tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. (C Oceans). Vol. 108, no. C4

Wang, G., R. Kleeman, N. Smith, and F. Tseitkin, 2000: Seasonal prediction with a coupled global ocean-atmosphere model. BMRC Research Report No 77, Bur. Met., Melbourne, Australia, 34 pp.

Wang, G., R. Kleeman, N. Smith, and F. Tseitkin, 2001: The BMRC coupled general circulation model ENSO forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 975-991.

Wang, G., O. Alves, N. Smith and F. Tseitkin, 2001. The new version of the BMRC coupled general circulation seasonal forecasting model. Proceeding of the 13th BMRC Modelling Workshop. The climate of Australia and the Indo-Pacific region, Nov 2001.

Zhong, A., R. Coleman, N. Smith, M. Naughton, L. Rikus, K. Puri and F. Tseitkin (2001): Ten-year AMIP 1 Climatologies from versions of the BMRC Atmospheric Model. BMRC Research Report No 83, Bur. Met., Melbourne, Australia, 34 pp.

Zhong, A., O. Alves, A. Schiller, G. Wang, F. Tseitkin and N. Smith, 2001. A new version of the BMRC coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model for seasonal predictions: a brief description. BMRC Research Report. (status: review stage)

 

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