Publications related to POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction Systems

2014

Drosdowsky, W., and M.C. Wheeler, 2014: Predicting the onset of the north Australian wet season with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, in press.

Zhu, H., M.C. Wheeler, A.H. Sobel, and D. Hudson, 2014: Seamless precipitation prediction skill in the tropics and extratropics from a global model. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.

2013

Beer T., D. Abbs and O. Alves, 2013: Concatenated Hazards: Tsunamis, Climate Change, Tropical Cyclones and Floods. In Tsunami Events and Lessons Learned. Environmental and Societal Significance. Editors Y. A. Kontar, V. Santiago-Fandino, T.Takahashi. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, 35, pp 255-270.

Charles, Andrew, Bertrand Timbal, Elodie Fernandez, Harry Hendon, 2013: Analog Downscaling of Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts in the Murray Darling Basin. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 10991117. doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00098.1

Cottrill, A., H. H. Hendon, E.-P. Lim, S. Langford, K. Shelton, A. Charles, D. McClymont, D. Jones, and Y. Kuleshov, 2013: Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific using the coupled model POAMA-2. Weather and Forecasting. doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00072.1

Hudson, D., A. Marshall, Y. Yin, O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2013: Improving intraseasonal prediction with a new ensemble generation strategy. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-13-00059.1, in press.

Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon and H. A. Rashid, 2013: Seasonal predictability of the Southern Annular Mode due to its association with ENSO J. Climate, 26, 8037-8054

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, H.H. Hendon, M.J. Pook, O. Alves, and M.C. Wheeler, 2013: Simulation and prediction of blocking in the Australian region and its influence on intra-seasonal rainfall in POAMA-2. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1974-7

Marshall AG, Hudson D, Wheeler MC, Alves O, Hendon HH, Pook MJ, Risbey JS, 2013: Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-2016-1

Miles E, Spillman CM, Church J, McIntosh P, 2013: Seasonal Prediction of Global Sea-Level Anomalies using an Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Model. Climate Dynamics, in press.

Spillman CM, Hobday AJ, 2013: Dynamical seasonal ocean forecasts to aid salmon farm management in a climate hotspot. Climate Risk Management, in press.

White, C.J., D. Hudson and O. Alves, 2013: ENSO, the IOD and intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA2. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s0038201320072.

Zhao M., G. Roff, H. Hendon, P. Okely, X. Zhou, A. Marshall, G. Liu, F. Tseitkin, and O. Alves, 2013: Improving Multiweek Rainfall Forecasts: Experimentation with the ACCESS climate models. CAWCR Technical Report No. 064, 39pp.

Zhao, M., H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin and D. Anderson, 2013: Impact of salinity constraints on the simulated mean state and variability in a coupled seasonal forecast model. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 141, No1, 388-402, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00341.1.

2012

Asseng, S., D. Thomas, P. McIntosh, O. Alves, N. Khimashia, 2012: Managing mixed wheat-sheep farms with a seasonal forecast. Agricultural Systems, 113, 50-56.

Asseng, S., P.C. McIntosh, G. Wang and N. Khimashia, 2012: Optimal N fertiliser management based on a seasonal forecast. Europ. J. Agronomy, 38, 66-73.

Cottrill, A., Hendon, H.H., Lim, E-P., Langford, S., Kuleshov, Y., Charles, A. and Jones, D., 2012: Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Pacific using the POAMA coupled model forecast system. CAWCR Technical Report No. 048

Griesser A, Spillman C, 2012: SST forecast skill of the new intra-seasonal configuration of POAMA-2. CAWCR Research Letters, 8:10-16.

Hendon, H. H, E.-P. Lim, and G. Liu, 2012: The Role of Air-Sea Interaction for Prediction of Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall J. Climate, vol. 25, 1278-1290.

Kuleshov Y, Jones D, Hendon H, Charles A, Cottrill A, Lim E-P, Langford S, de Wit R, Shelton K, Spillman CM, Amjadali A, Pahalad J, Kaniaha S, McClymont D, 2012: Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program: Strengthening the capacity for seasonal prediction services in Pacific countries. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 25:7-12.

Kuleshov Y, Spillman C, Wang Y, Charles A, de Wit R, Shelton K, Jones D, Hendon H, Ganter C, Watkins A, Apajee J, Miles E, Griesser A, 2012: Seasonal prediction of climate extremes for the Pacific: tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 20:675-683.

Lim, E-P., Hendon, H.H., Langford, S. and Alves, O., 2012: Improvements in POAMA2 for the prediction of major climate drivers and south eastern Australian rainfall. CAWCR Technical Report No. 051

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2012: Simulation and prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections using POAMA. CAWCR Technical Report No. 056, 113-116.

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2012: Simulation and prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and its influence on Australian intra-seasonal climate in POAMA. Climate Dynamics, 38, 2483-2502, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1140-z

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2012: Evaluating key drivers of Australian intra-seasonal climate variability in POAMA-2: a progress report. CAWCR Research Letters, 7:10-16.

Schepen, A., Q. J. Wang,2 and D. E. Robertson, 2012: Combining the strengths of statistical and dynamical modeling approaches for forecasting Australian seasonal rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D20107, doi:10.1029/2012JD018011

Shi, L., H. Hendon, O. Alves, J. Luo, M. Balmaseda, and D. Anderson, 2012: How Predictable is the Indian Ocean Dipole? Mon. Wea. Rev. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00001.1, in press.

Spillman CM, Alves O, Hudson DA, 2012: Predicting thermal stress for coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef using a coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast model. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3486.

Xue, Y., M. Balmaseda, T. Boyer, N. Ferry, S. Good, I. Ishikawa, A. Kumar, M. Rienecker, A. Rosati, and Y. Yin, 2012: A comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from an Ensemble of Operational Ocean Reanalyses, Journal of Climate, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00542.1

2011

Alves, O., Hudson, D., Balmaseda, M., Shi, L., 2011: Seasonal and Decadal Prediction. In: A. Schiller and G. B. Brassington (Eds.), Operational Oceanography in the 21st Century, Springer. 745pp

Beggs Helen, Zhong Aihong, Warren Graham, Alves Oscar, Brassington Gary and Pugh Tim, 2011: RAMSSA - An Operational, High-Resolution, Multi-Sensor Sea Surface Temperature Analysis over the Australian Region. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 61, 1-22.

Charles, A., Hendon, H., Wang, Q.J., Robertson, D and Lim, E-P., 2011: Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall. CAWCR Technical Report No. 040

Hobday, A.J., Hartog, J.R., Spillman, C.M., Alves, O., 2011: Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat for dynamic spatial management. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 68:898-911.

Hudson, D., Alves, O., Hendon, H.H. and Wang, G., 2011: The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST. Climate Dynamics. 36:1155-1171

Hudson, D., Alves O., Hendon H.H., Marshall A.G., 2011: Bridging the Gap between Weather and Seasonal Forecasting: Intraseasonal Forecasting for Australia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 137:673-689. doi:10.1002/qj.769.

Hudson, D., Marshall, A., Alves,O., 2011: Intraseasonal forecasting of the 2009 summer and winter Australian heat waves using POAMA. Weather and Forecasting. 26, 257-279.

Langford, S. and Hendon, H., 2011: Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability. CAWCR Technical Report No. 039

Langford, S., Hendon, H.H. and Lim. E-P., 2011: Assessment of POAMA’s predictions of some climate indices for use as predictors of Australian rainfall. CAWCR Technical Report No. 031

Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, D. L. T. Anderson, A. Charles and O. Alves, 2011: Dynamical, statistical-dynamical and multi-model ensemble forecasts of Australian spring season rainfall. Mon. Wea. Rev. vol.139, 958-975.

Marshall, AG., Hudson, D., Wheeler, MC., Hendon, HH., Alves, O., 2011: Simulation and prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and its influence on Australian intra-seasonal climate in POAMA. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1140-z.

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves., 2011: Assessing the Simulation and Prediction of Rainfall Associated with the MJO in the POAMA Seasonal Forecast System. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0948-2.

Okely, P., Alves, O., Hudson, D., Yin, Y., 2011: Towards coupled data assimilation: coupled covariance structures. CAWCR Research Letters, 7, CAWCR, Australia.

Risbey, J.S., P.C. McIntosh, M.J. Pook, H.A. Rashid, and T. Hirst, 2011: Evaluation of rainfall drivers and teleconnections in an ACCESS AMIP run. Aust. Meteorol. Oceanographic J., 61, 91-95.

Spillman CM, 2011: Advances in forecasting coral bleaching conditions for reef management. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92:1586-1591.

Spillman C.M., 2011: Operational real-time seasonal forecasts for coral reef management. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 4(1):13-22. Awarded the 2011 IMarEST Denny Medal (JOO).

Spillman CM, 2011: Real-time predictions of coral bleaching risk for the Great Barrier Reef: Summer 2010/2011. CAWCR Research Letters, 6:34-39.

Spillman C.M., Alves O. and Hudson D.A., 2011: Seasonal prediction of thermal stress accumulation for coral bleaching in the tropical oceans. Monthly Weather Review, 139:317-331.

Spillman CM, Alves O, Hudson DA, Hobday AJ, Hartog JR, 2011: Using dynamical seasonal forecasts in marine management. In Chan, F., Marinova, D. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011, pp. 2163-2169. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7.

Spillman CM, Heron SF, Jury MR, Anthony KRN, 2011: Climate change and carbon threats to coral reefs: National Meteorological and ocean services as sentinels. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92:1581-1586.

Wang, G., D. Hudson, Y. Ying, O. Alves, H. Hendon, S. Langford, G. Liu, and F. Tseitkin, 2011: POAMA-2 SST Skill Assessment and Beyond. CAWCR Research Letters, 6, 40-46.

Xue, Y., M.A. Balmaseda, T. Boyer, N. Ferry, S. Good, I. Ishikawa, M. Rienecker, T. Rosati, Y. Yin, A. Kumar, 2011: Comparative analysis of upper ocean heat content variability from ensemble operational ocean analyses. U.S. CLIVAR Variations, 9(1), 7-10.

Yin, Y., O. Alves, and P. R. Oke, 2011: An ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 786-808.

2010

Jury MR, Heron SF, Spillman CM, Anthony KRN, 2010: Climate, Carbon and Coral Reefs. Expert brochure commissioned by the WMO for distribution at the COP-10 session of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in October 2010, Nagoya, Japan.

Li, S., H.H. Hendon, O. Alves, M.C. Wheeler, D. Anderson, and Guomin Wang, 2010: On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/98 El Niño. Climate Dyn., (in press).

Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin, G. Wang, D. Hudson, M. Zhao and L. Shi, 2010: Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical Indo-Pacific SST and Australian rainfall with improved ocean initial conditions. CAWCR Tech. Rep. No. 032.

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2010: Assessing the simulation and prediction of rainfall associated with the MJO in the POAMA seasonal forecast system. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0948-2

Rashid, H.A., H.H. Hendon, M.C. Wheeler, and O. Alves, 2010: Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. Climate Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x.

Spillman C.M., Hudson D.A. and Alves O., 2010: Real-time seasonal SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef during the summer of 2009/2010. CAWCR Research Letters, 4:11-19.

Zhao, M., G. Wang, H.H.Hendon, and O.Alves, 2010: Impact of including ocean surface currents on simulation of Indian Ocean variability with the POAMA coupled. Climate Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0823-1.

Zhu, H. and Hendon, H., 2010: Convection and MJO performance in UM7.1. CAWCR Technical Report No. 022

2009

Hendon, H.H., E. Lim, G. Wang, O. Alves, and D. Hudson, 2009: Prospects for predicting two flavors of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19713, doi:10.1029/2009GL040100.

Hendon, H.H., and G. Wang, 2009: Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model. Climate Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0570-3.

Li, S., O. Alves, H.H. Hendon, G. Wang, and D. Anderson, 2009: The role of stochastic forcing in ensemble forecasts of the 1997/98 El Niño. J. Climate, 22, 2526-2540.

Lim, E.-P., H.H. Hendon, D. Hudson, G. Wang, and O. Alves, 2009: Dynamical forecasts of inter-El Niño variations of tropical SST and Australian springtime rainfall. Mon.Wea. Rev., 137,3796-3810.

Marshall, A.G., O.Alves, and Hendon, H.H., 2009: A coupled GCM analysis of the MJO activity at the onset of El Niño. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 966-982.

Maynard J.A., Johnson J.E., Marshall P.A., Goby G., Schuttenberg H. and Spillman C.M., 2009: A strategic framework for responding to coral bleaching events in a changing climate. Journal of Environmental Management, 44:1-11.

Spillman C.M. and Alves O., 2009: Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs 28:197-206.

Spillman C.M., Alves O., Hudson D.A. and Charles A.N., 2009: POAMA SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef: Summer 2008/2009. CAWCR Research Letters, 2:30-34.

Spillman C.M., Alves O., Hudson D.A. and Charles A.N., 2009: New Operational Seasonal SST Products for Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 22:112-114.

Wang B, Li J-Y, Kang I-S, Shukla J, Park C-K, Kumar A, Schemm J, Cocke S, Kug J-S, Luo J-J, Fu X, Yun W-T, Alves O, Jin E, Kinter J, Kirtman B, Krishnamurti T, Lau N, Lau W, Liu P, Pegion P, Rosati T, Schubert S, Stern W, Suarez M and Yamagate T, 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14 model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004), 2009. Clim Dyn., 33, 93-117.

Zhao, M., and H.H. Hendon, 2009: Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 337-352.

2008

G. Wang, O. Alves, D. Hudson, H. Hendon, G. Liu, and F. Tseitkin, 2008: SST skill assessment from the new POAMA-1.5 System. BMRC Research Letter No.8.

M. Zhao and H. Hendon, 2008: Simulation and prediction of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. (Accepted for publication)

Marshall, A., O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2008: An enhanced moisture convergence-evaporation feedback mechanism for MJO air/sea interaction. J. Atmos. Sci. Vol. 65, no. 3, pp. 970-986.

2007

H. Hendon and G. Wang, 2007: Seasonal Prediction of the Leeuwin Current. CLAVAR Exchanges, Vol. 12, No. 4.

Wang, G. and Hendon, H. H., 2007: Sensitivity of Australian rainfall to inter-El Niño variations. Journal of Climate. Vol. 20, no. 16, pp. 4211-4226.

2006

Hendon, H.H., A. Zhong, and O. Alves, 2006: Intrinsic coupled variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. (in revision J. Climate).

Marshall A.G., O. Alves, H.H. Hendon, and M.C. Wheeler, 2006: A wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis of intraseasonal variability in the standard BMRC atmosphere general circulation model. BMRC research report No. 122, Bur. Met. Australia.

Waliser, D., K. Weickmann, R. Dole, S. Schubert, O. Alves, C. Jones, M. Newman, H.-L. Pan, A. Roubicek, S. Saha, C. Smith, H. van den Dool, F. Vitart, M. Wheeler, and J. Whitaker, 2006: The experimental MJO prediction project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, April 2006.

Zhang, C., M. Dong, S. Gualdi, H.H. Hendon, E.D. Maloney, A. Marshall, K.R. Sperber, and W. Wang, 2006: Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in four pairs of coupled and uncoupled global models. Climate Dynamics, 27, 573-592.

2005

Alves. O. and C. Robert, 2005: Tropical Pacific ocean model error covariances from Monte Carlo simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Vol. 131, no. 613, pp. 3643-3658.

Oke, P. R., A. Schiller, D. A. Griffin and G. B. Brassington, 2005: Ensemble data assimilation for an eddy-resolving ocean model of the Australian region. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.]. Vol. 131, no. 613, pp. 3301-3311.

Zhong, A., H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2005: Indian Ocean variability and its association with ENSO in a global coupled model. J. Climate, 18, 3634-3649.

2004 and before

Alves, O., G. Wang, A. Zhong, N. Smith, F. Tseitkin, G. Warren, A. Schiller, S. Godfrey and G. Meyers, 2003: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Science for drought: Proceedings of the National Drought Forum, Brisbane, Apr 2003, R. Stone and I. Partridge, Eds. Department of Primary Industries, 49-56.

Schiller, A. and J.S. Godfrey, 2003: Indian Ocean Intraseasonal Variability in an Ocean General Circulation Model. J. Clim. Vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 21-39.

Alves, O., G. Wang, A. Zhong, N. Smith, G. Warren, A. Marshall, F. Tzeitkin, and A. Schiller, 2002: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on the Role of the Upper Ocean in Medium and Extended Range Forecasting.

Alves, O., 2001: Ocean initial conditions and ENSO forecasts. Proceedings of the 13th BMRC Modelling Workshop. The climate of Australia and the Indo-Pacific region, Nov 2001.

Feng, M., G. Meyers, S. Wijffels, 2001: Interannual upper ocean variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 4151-4154.

Feng, M. and G. Meyers, 2002: Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean: A two-year time scale of IOD. J. Mar. Res. (submitted).

Godfrey, J.S., E. F. Bradley, P. A. Coppin, L. F Pender, T. J. McDougall, E. W. Schulz and I. Helmond, 1999: Measurements of upper ocean heat and freshwater budgets near a drifting buoy in the equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res.104, 13269-13302

McIntosh, P., 2000: Connecting climate model forecasts with agricultural management systems. Report on a LWRRDC COR5 Workshop. CSIRO Marine Research (informal report), 13pp.

Schiller, A., 1999: How well does a coarse resolution circulation model simulate observed interannual variability in the upper Indian Ocean? Geophys. Res. Letters 26, 1485-1488.

Schiller, A., J. S. Godfrey, P. McIntosh, G. Meyers and R. Fiedler, 2000: Interannual dynamics and thermodynamics of the Indo-Pacific Oceans. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30, 987-1012.

Schiller, A., 2001: Improving Climate Simulations in the Tropical Oceans. IUTAM Symposium on Advances in Mathematical Modelling of Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics. Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Schiller, A., 2002: Seasonal-to-Interannual Water-Mass Formation in the Upper Tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. (C Oceans). Vol. 108, no. C4

Wang, G., R. Kleeman, N. Smith, and F. Tseitkin, 2000: Seasonal prediction with a coupled global ocean-atmosphere model. BMRC Research Report No 77, Bur. Met., Melbourne, Australia, 34 pp.

Wang, G., R. Kleeman, N. Smith, and F. Tseitkin, 2001: The BMRC coupled general circulation model ENSO forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 975-991.

Wang, G., O. Alves, N. Smith and F. Tseitkin, 2001: The new version of the BMRC coupled general circulation seasonal forecasting model. Proceeding of the 13th BMRC Modelling Workshop. The climate of Australia and the Indo-Pacific region, Nov 2001.

Zhong, A., R. Coleman, N. Smith, M. Naughton, L. Rikus, K. Puri and F. Tseitkin, 2001: Ten-year AMIP 1 Climatologies from versions of the BMRC Atmospheric Model. BMRC Research Report No 83, Bur. Met., Melbourne, Australia, 34 pp.

Zhong, A., O. Alves, A. Schiller, G. Wang, F. Tseitkin and N. Smith, 2001: A new version of the BMRC coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model for seasonal predictions: a brief description. BMRC Research Report. (status: review stage)