Long range tropical cyclone forecasts have been developed using the Bureau of Meteorology's new ensemble-based models. These products use the ACCESS-GE2 Numerical Weather Prediction model to provide guidance for days 4-10, and the ACCESS-S seasonal forecast model for guidance from days 4-28.
- Realtime Prototype Forecast Products: Forecast Visualisation Tool
- Skill Assessment and Analysis: Skill and Analysis Page
- User Guide and available products : User Guide Page
The products are EXPERIMENTAL ONLY and do NOT currently form part of the Bureau's standard services in any way. Access to the products is made available for trial purposes only and on the basis that users are fully aware that these products are being tested and that users will not issue these products as real-time forecasts in any way. The forecast products are subject to the Bureau's copyright and disclaimer.
The following conditions apply:
- Products are not official Bureau products, they are prototype products
- Products are only to be used for trial purposes to assess their usefulness and not as an ongoing service
- Products are not operationally supported, they may occasionally be unavailable for periods of up to 2 weeks e.g., due to system upgrades
- Products may be added and removed at any stage without notice
Feedback on the products is encouraged as this will help determine whether they will become fully operational Bureau products and available to all. The Bureau can also use suggestions to help tailor and guide the presentation of a product.
- Kevin J. Tory, Richard A. Dare, Noel E. Davidson, John McBride, S. S. Chand, 2013: The importance of low-deformation vorticity in tropical cyclone formation. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Joanne Camp, Matthew C. Wheeler, Harry H. Hendon, Paul A. Gregory, Andrew G. Marshall, Kevin J. Tory, Andrew B. Watkins, Craig MacLachlan,Yuriy Kuleshov, 2018: Skilful multiweek tropical cyclone prediction in ACCESS‐S1 and the role of the MJO. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- Paul A. Gregory, Joanne Camp, Katrina Bigelow, Andrew Brown, 2018: Sub-seasonal predictability of the 2017–18 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season. Atmospheric Science Letters (in Press)