Spatial Skill
Area Averaged Skill
Probabilistic Skill
Depth Timeseries
Area-Averaged Timeseries
ENSO Composites
Sea Surface Height
These products are experimental and under ongoing development. They are currently only available to collaboration members. Please do not use, share, copy or reproduce any of these products without permission from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Request access to trial products.
The products are experimental only and do not currently form part of the Bureau's standard services in any way. Access to the products is made available for trial purposes only and on the basis that users are fully aware that these products are being tested and that users will not issue these products as real-time forecasts in any way. The forecast products are subject to the Bureau's copyright and disclaimer.

This preliminary seasonal forecast skill assessment for the New Zealand region has been produced under the Ocean Climate Metrics for New Zealand Marine Industries project, in collaboration with NIWA. This assessment is based on the 1990-2012 hindcast set from the Bureau's new seasonal prediction system ACCESS-S1.

Note: This is an experimental page displaying in-development research plots. Not all plots have been made for all combinations of options in the menus under each tab. If an image is missing, try a different combination of options.

Regions of interest

The experimental products are available for ENSO, all of New Zealand, and 3 subregions as shown below.

ensomap nzmap


The spatial distribution of skill around New Zealand for ACCESS-S1 is quite heavily influenced by the bathymetry of the region. To illustrate this and to aid in interpreting the plots on this site, two ACCESS-S1 bathymetry figures are shown below. The left figure shows the complete model bathymetry with contour lines overlaid. The right figure shows the same bathymetry, but as filled contours to better highlight isobaths of interest. Acronyms on the figures are: Cook Strait (CS), Chatham Islands (CHI), Mernoo Saddle (MS), Solander Trough (ST), Stewart Island (SI), Auckland Island (AI), and Campbell Island (CI).

bath1 bath2

Month of maximum and minimum temperature

It is generally hardest for a climate model to forecast the summer season. This is important to note because the highest risk season for aquaculture and fisheries in New Zealand is likely to be the month for which the top layers of the ocean are the hottest. The figures below show the month of maximum temperature (top panel, left figure) and the maximum temperature in the hottest month (bottom panel, left figure), and the month of minimum temperature (top panel, right figure) and the minimum temperature in the hottest month (bottom panel, right figure), from Reynolds AVHRR 1990-2012 climatology.

maxt mint