POAMA-2 Skill compared with POAMA-1.5

Plots of tropical SST Skill

Plots to compare POAMA-2 with POAMA-1.5 for SST Skill

Just a few plots on a page that provide a sample of how POAMA-2 compares with POAMA-1.5 to demonstrate improvements.


Anomaly correlation

POAMA 2POAMA 1.5
POAMA 2 Anomaly correlation POAMA 1.5 Anomaly correlation
Colour bar

Anomaly correlation of ensemble mean rainfall forecast for P1.5, P2.4. Lead time 1 month, forecast initialised one month before the start of the verification season. 1980-2005 hindcast period.


Accuracy score for above median rainfall

POAMA 2POAMA 1.5
POAMA 2 Hit Rate POAMA 1.5 Hit Rate
Colour bar

Accuracy score for above median rainfall forecast (fraction of hits and correct negatives compared to total forecasts) for P1.5, P2.4. Lead time 1 month, forecast initialised one month before the start of the verification season. Cross validated skill measured for 1980-2005 hindcast period.


Attributes diagram for above median rainfall

POAMA 2POAMA 1.5
POAMA 2 Attributes POAMA 1.5 Attributes

Attributes diagram for above median rainfall forecast for P1.5, P2.4. MAM, JJA, SON and DJF at lead time 1 month and 4 months combined. Lead time 1 month means the forecast was initialised one month before the start of each verification season. Cross validated skill measured for 1980-2005 hindcast period. The y-axis is the relative observed frequency, the x-axis is the forecast probability. The solid line shows perfect reliability. The shaded area indicates a skilful forecast. The size of the data point indicates the relative fraction of grid points occurring in each forecast probability bin.