POAMA-2 Skill compared with POAMA-1.5
Plots of tropical SST Skill
Just a few plots on a page that provide a sample of how POAMA-2 compares with POAMA-1.5 to demonstrate improvements.
Anomaly correlation
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Anomaly correlation of ensemble mean rainfall forecast for P1.5, P2.4. Lead time 1 month, forecast initialised one month before the start of the verification season. 1980-2005 hindcast period.
Accuracy score for above median rainfall
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Accuracy score for above median rainfall forecast (fraction of hits and correct negatives compared to total forecasts) for P1.5, P2.4. Lead time 1 month, forecast initialised one month before the start of the verification season. Cross validated skill measured for 1980-2005 hindcast period.
Attributes diagram for above median rainfall
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Attributes diagram for above median rainfall forecast for P1.5, P2.4. MAM, JJA, SON and DJF at lead time 1 month and 4 months combined. Lead time 1 month means the forecast was initialised one month before the start of each verification season. Cross validated skill measured for 1980-2005 hindcast period. The y-axis is the relative observed frequency, the x-axis is the forecast probability. The solid line shows perfect reliability. The shaded area indicates a skilful forecast. The size of the data point indicates the relative fraction of grid points occurring in each forecast probability bin.
