Publications related to POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction Systems


Widlansky, M., J. Marra, M. Chowdhury, S. Stephens, E. Miles, N. Fauchereau, C. Spillman, G. Smith, G. Beard, and J. Wells, 2017: Multi-model ensemble sea level forecasts for tropical Pacific islands. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0284.1


Griesser A.G. and Spillman C.M., 2016: Assessing the Skill and Value of Seasonal Thermal Stress Forecasts for Coral Bleaching Risk in the Western Pacific. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 55:1565-1578, DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0109.1

Hobday, A. J., C. M. Spillman, J. P. Eveson and J. R. Hartog, 2016: Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture. Fisheries Oceanography 25(S1): 45-56.

Hudson, D and Marshall, A.G. 2016: Extending the Bureau's heatwave forecast to multi-week timescales. Bureau Research Report, No. 16. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Hudson, D., Marshall, A.G., Alves, O., Young, G., Jones, D., Watkins, A. 2016: Forewarned is forearmed: Extended range forecast guidance of recent extreme heat events in Australia. Weather and Forecasting 31:3, 697-711. DOI:

Lim, EP., Hendon, H.H., Arblaster, J.M., Christine Chung, Aurel F. Moise, Pandora Hope, Griffith Young, Mei Zhao, 2016: Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall. Climate Dynamics, pp 1-19, DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2963-9

Lim, E.-P., Hendon, H.H., Hudson, D., Zhao, M., Shi, L., Alves O. and Young, G. 2016: Evaluation of the ACCESS-S1 hindcasts for prediction of Victorian seasonal rainfall Bureau Research Report, No. 19. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, M. Zhao and Y. Yin 2016: Inter-decadal variations in the linkages between ENSO, the IOD and south-eastern Australian springtime rainfall in the past 30 years Clim. Dyn. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3328-8

Marshall, A.G., H.H. Hendon, and G. Wang, 2016: On the role of anomalous ocean surface temperatures for promoting the record Madden-Julian Oscillation in March 2015. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 472-481.

Marshall, A.G., H.H. Hendon and D. Hudson, 2016: Visualizing and verifying probabilistic forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1002/2016GL071423

Marshall, A.G., H.H. Hendon, S.-W. Son and Y. Lim, 2016: Impact of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3392-0

Shi, L., Alves O., Wedd R., Balmaseda MA, Chang Y., Chepurin G., Ferry N., Fujii Y., Gaillard F., Good S.A., Guinehut S., Haines K., Hernandez F., Lee T., Palmer M., Peterson K.A., Masuda S., Storto A., Toyoda T., Valdivieso M., Vernieres G., Wang X., Yin Y. 2016: An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the Ocean Reanalyses Inter comparison Project (ORA IP), Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2868-7.

Shi, L., Hudson, D., Alves, O., Young, G., MacLachlan, C., 2016: Comparison of GloSea5-GC2 skill with POAMA-2 for key horticultural regions. Bureau Research Report, No. 13. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Vanhalato J, Hobday AJ, Little R, Spillman CM, 2016: Downscaling and extrapolating dynamical seasonal marine forecasts for coastal ocean users. Ocean Modelling, 100:20-30, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.01.004

Wheeler, M.C., H. Zhu, A.H. Sobel, D. Hudson, and F. Vitart, 2016: Seamless precipitation prediction skill comparison between two global models. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2928.

Zhao, M. H. Hendon, O. Alves, G. Liu, G. Wang, 2016: Weakened Eastern Pacific El Niño Predictability in the Early Twenty-First Century. Journal of Climate., Vol. 29, No. 18, 6805-6822. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0876.1

Zhao, M., H. Hendon, Y. Yin, O. Alves, 2016: Variations of upper-ocean salinity associated with ENSO from PEODAS reanalyses. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, No. 6, 2077-2094. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0650.1


Andrew N. Charles, Robyn E. Duell, Xiangdong Wang, Andrew B. Watkins, 2015: Seasonal Forecasting for Australia using a Dynamical Model: Improvements in Forecast Skill over the Operational Statistical Model. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 65(3):356-375

Eveson, J.P., Hobday, A.J., Hartog, J.R., Spillman, C.M., Rough, K.M. 2015: Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat in the Great Australian Bight. Fisheries Research, Vol 170, pp. 39-49

Harry H. Hendon, Mei Zhao, Andrew Marshall, Eun-pa Lim, Jing-Jia Luo, Oscar Alves and Craig MacLachlan. 2015: Comparison of GLOSEA5 and POAMA2.4 Hindcasts - 1996-2009. Bureau Research Report, No. 11. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Hope, P., E.-P. Lim, G. Wang, H. H. Hendon, J. M. Arblaster, 2015: Contributors to the record high temperatures across Australia in late spring 2014 Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 96 (12), S149-S153

Hudson, D., Marshall, A., Alves, O., Shi, L., Young, G. 2015: Forecasting upcoming extreme heat on multi-week to seasonal timescales: POAMA experimental forecast products. Bureau Research Report, No. 1. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Lim, E.-P. and H. H. Hendon, 2015: Understanding and predicting the strong Southern Annular Mode and its impact on the record wet east Australian spring 2010. Clim. Dyn., 44, 2807-2824, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2400-5

Lim, E.-P. and H. H. Hendon, 2015: Understanding the contrast of Australian springtime rainfall of 1997 and 2002 in the frame of two flavors of El Niño. J. Clim., 28, 28042822

Marshall A.G. and H.H. Hendon, 2015: Subseasonal Prediction of Australian Summer Monsoon Anomalies. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10913-10919.

McIntosh P, Church J, Miles E, Ridgway K, Spillman CM. 2015: Seasonal Prediction of Western Pacific Sea-level using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Model, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 67476753, doi:10.1002/2015GL065091

Muhuddin Rajin Anwar, Jing-Jia Luo, Oscar Alves, Timothy Sides, Griffith Young, Jason Crean, Anthony Clark, Ian McGowen, 2015: Can seasonal forecast minimise the threats of climate variability to achieve profitable crop-livestock productions in NSW. Proceedings of the 17th ASA Conference, 2024 September 2015, Hobart, Australia (available at

Sobel, A.H., Zhu, H., Wheeler, M.C., Hudson, D., Vitart, F. 2015: Seamless Precipitation Prediction Skill in the Tropics and Extratropics. 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, 28 June - 03 July 2015, Chicago, IL

Spillman CM, Hartog JR, Hobday AJ, Hudson DA. 2015: Predicting environmental drivers for prawn aquaculture production to aid improved farm management. Aquaculture, 447:56-65.

Takahiro Toyoda, Yosuke, Fujii, Tsurane, Kuragano, Masafumi, Kamachi, Yoichi, Ishikawa, Shuhei, Masuda, Kanako, Sato, Toshiyuki, Awaji, Fabrice, Hernandez, Nicolas, Ferry, Stéphanie, Guinehut, Matthew, J. Martin, K. Andrew, Peterson, Simon, A. Good, Maria, Valdivieso, Keith, Haines, Andrea, Storto, Simona, Masina, Armin, Köhl, Hao, Zuo, Magdalena, Balmaseda, Yonghong, Yin, Li, Shi, Oscar, Alves, Gregory, Smith, You‑Soon, Chang, Guillaume, Vernieres, Xiaochun, Wang, Gael, Forget, Patrick, Heimbach, Ou, Wang, Ichiro, Fukumori, Tong, Lee, 2015: Intercomparison and validation of the mixed layer depth fields of global ocean syntheses Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-015-2637-7

Xiaobing Zhou, Jing-Jia Luo, Oscar Alves and Harry Hendon. 2015: Comparison of GloSea5 and POAMA2.4 Hindcasts - 1996-2009: Ocean Focus Bureau Research Report, No. 10. Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.


Arblaster, J. M., E.-P. Lim, H. H. Hendon, B. C. Trewin, M. C. Wheeler, G. Liu and K. Braganza, 2014: Understanding Australia's hottest September on record. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 95 (9), S37-S41, (with Supplementary Material)

Charles, A. N., Brown, J. R., Cottrill, A., Shelton, K. L., Nakaegawa, T., & Kuleshov, Y. 2014: Seasonal prediction of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the austral wet season. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119(22) 12-546.

Drosdowsky, W., and M.C. Wheeler, 2014: Predicting the onset of the north Australian wet season with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 150-161.

Hobday AJ, Spillman CM, Eveson JP, Hartog JR, 2014: Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture. Fisheries Oceanography, in press.

Jia, X-J, Lee, J-Y, Lin, H, Hendon, H, Ha, K-J, 2014: Interdecadal change in the Northern Hemisphere seasonal climate prediction skill: part II. predictability and prediction skill. Climate Dynamics, 43, 1611-1630, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2084-x

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, H.H. Hendon, M.J. Pook, O. Alves, and M.C. Wheeler, 2014: Simulation and prediction of blocking in the Australian region and its influence on intra-seasonal rainfall in POAMA-2. Clim. Dyn., 42, 3271-3288, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1974-7

Marshall A.G., Hudson D., Wheeler M.C., Alves O., Hendon H.H., Pook M.J., Risbey J.S., 2014: Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2. Climate Dynamics, 43, 1915-1937, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-2016-1

Miles E, Spillman CM, Church J, McIntosh P, 2014: Seasonal Prediction of Global Sea-Level Anomalies using an Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Model. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-2039-7

Spillman CM, Hartog JR, Hobday AJ, Hudson DA, 2014: Predicting environmental drivers for prawn aquaculture production to aid improved farm management. Aquaculture, in press.

Spillman CM, Hobday AJ, 2014: Dynamical seasonal ocean forecasts to aid salmon farm management in a climate hotspot. Climate Risk Management, 1:25-38

Zhao, M., H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin, 2014: Impact of Improved Assimilation of Temperature and Salinity for Coupled Model Seasonal Forecasts. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 42, No.9, 2565-2583. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2081-0

Zhu, H., M.C. Wheeler, A.H. Sobel, and D. Hudson, 2014: Seamless precipitation prediction skill in the tropics and extratropics from a global model. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 1556-1569.


Beer T., D. Abbs and O. Alves, 2013: Concatenated Hazards: Tsunamis, Climate Change, Tropical Cyclones and Floods. In Tsunami Events and Lessons Learned. Environmental and Societal Significance. Editors Y. A. Kontar, V. Santiago-Fandino, T.Takahashi. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, 35, pp 255-270.

Charles, Andrew, Bertrand Timbal, Elodie Fernandez, Harry Hendon, 2013: Analog Downscaling of Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts in the Murray Darling Basin. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 10991117.

Charles, A., Shelton, K., Nakaegawa, T., Hendon, H., & Kuleshov, Y. 2013: Prediction of tropical cyclone activity with coarse resolution global climate models. International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (John Boland and Julia Piantadosi 01 December 2013 to 06 December 2013) (pp. 2555-2561). The Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.

Cottrill, A., H. H. Hendon, E.-P. Lim, S. Langford, K. Shelton, A. Charles, D. McClymont, D. Jones, and Y. Kuleshov, 2013: Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific using the coupled model POAMA-2. Weather and Forecasting.

Cottrill, Andrew, et al. 2013: Seasonal Forecast Verification in the Pacific using a coupled model POAMA and the statistical. Bull. Am. Meteror Soc 93 631-651.

Hudson, D., A. Marshall, Y. Yin, O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2013: Improving intraseasonal prediction with a new ensemble generation strategy. Monthly Weather Review, 141, 4429-4449, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00059.1

Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon and H. A. Rashid, 2013: Seasonal predictability of the Southern Annular Mode due to its association with ENSO J. Climate, 26, 8037-8054

White, C.J., D. Hudson and O. Alves, 2013: ENSO, the IOD and intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA2. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s0038201320072

Zhao M., G. Roff, H. Hendon, P. Okely, X. Zhou, A. Marshall, G. Liu, F. Tseitkin, and O. Alves, 2013: Improving Multiweek Rainfall Forecasts: Experimentation with the ACCESS climate models. CAWCR Technical Report No. 064, 39pp.

Zhao, M., H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin and D. Anderson, 2013: Impact of salinity constraints on the simulated mean state and variability in a coupled seasonal forecast model. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 141, No1, 388-402, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00341.1


Asseng, S., D. Thomas, P. McIntosh, O. Alves, N. Khimashia, 2012: Managing mixed wheat-sheep farms with a seasonal forecast. Agricultural Systems, 113, 50-56.

Asseng, S., P.C. McIntosh, G. Wang and N. Khimashia, 2012: Optimal N fertiliser management based on a seasonal forecast. Europ. J. Agronomy, 38, 66-73.

Cottrill, A., Hendon, H.H., Lim, E-P., Langford, S., Kuleshov, Y., Charles, A. and Jones, D., 2012: Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Pacific using the POAMA coupled model forecast system. CAWCR Technical Report No. 048

Griesser A, Spillman C, 2012: SST forecast skill of the new intra-seasonal configuration of POAMA-2. CAWCR Research Letters, 8:10-16.

Hendon, H. H, E.-P. Lim, and G. Liu, 2012: The Role of Air-Sea Interaction for Prediction of Australian Summer Monsoon Rainfall J. Climate, vol. 25, 1278-1290.

Kuleshov Y, Jones D, Hendon H, Charles A, Cottrill A, Lim E-P, Langford S, de Wit R, Shelton K, Spillman CM, Amjadali A, Pahalad J, Kaniaha S, McClymont D, 2012: Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program: Strengthening the capacity for seasonal prediction services in Pacific countries. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 25:7-12.

Kuleshov Y, Spillman C, Wang Y, Charles A, de Wit R, Shelton K, Jones D, Hendon H, Ganter C, Watkins A, Apajee J, Miles E, Griesser A, 2012: Seasonal prediction of climate extremes for the Pacific: tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures. Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 20:675-683.

Lim, E-P., Hendon, H.H., Langford, S. and Alves, O., 2012: Improvements in POAMA2 for the prediction of major climate drivers and south eastern Australian rainfall. CAWCR Technical Report No. 051

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2012: Simulation and prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections using POAMA. CAWCR Technical Report No. 056, 113-116.

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2012: Simulation and prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and its influence on Australian intra-seasonal climate in POAMA. Climate Dynamics, 38, 2483-2502, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1140-z

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2012: Evaluating key drivers of Australian intra-seasonal climate variability in POAMA-2: a progress report. CAWCR Research Letters, 7:10-16.

Schepen, A., Q. J. Wang,2 and D. E. Robertson, 2012: Combining the strengths of statistical and dynamical modeling approaches for forecasting Australian seasonal rainfall. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D20107, DOI: 10.1029/2012JD018011

Shi, L., H. Hendon, O. Alves, J. Luo, M. Balmaseda, and D. Anderson, 2012: How Predictable is the Indian Ocean Dipole? Mon. Wea. Rev. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00001.1, in press.

Spillman CM, Alves O, Hudson DA, 2012: Predicting thermal stress for coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef using a coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal forecast model. International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3486.

Xue, Y., M. Balmaseda, T. Boyer, N. Ferry, S. Good, I. Ishikawa, A. Kumar, M. Rienecker, A. Rosati, and Y. Yin, 2012: A comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from an Ensemble of Operational Ocean Reanalyses, Journal of Climate, DOI:


Alves, O., Hudson, D., Balmaseda, M., Shi, L., 2011: Seasonal and Decadal Prediction. In: A. Schiller and G. B. Brassington (Eds.), Operational Oceanography in the 21st Century, Springer. 745pp

Beggs Helen, Zhong Aihong, Warren Graham, Alves Oscar, Brassington Gary and Pugh Tim, 2011: RAMSSA - An Operational, High-Resolution, Multi-Sensor Sea Surface Temperature Analysis over the Australian Region. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 61, 1-22.

Charles, A., Hendon, H., Wang, Q.J., Robertson, D and Lim, E-P., 2011: Comparison of techniques for the calibration of coupled model forecasts of Murray Darling Basin seasonal mean rainfall. CAWCR Technical Report No. 040

Hobday, A.J., Hartog, J.R., Spillman, C.M., Alves, O., 2011: Seasonal forecasting of tuna habitat for dynamic spatial management. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 68:898-911.

Hudson, D., Alves, O., Hendon, H.H. and Wang, G., 2011: The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST. Climate Dynamics. 36:1155-1171

Hudson, D., Alves O., Hendon H.H., Marshall A.G., 2011: Bridging the Gap between Weather and Seasonal Forecasting: Intraseasonal Forecasting for Australia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 137:673-689. DOI: 10.1002/qj.769

Hudson, D., Marshall, A., Alves,O., 2011: Intraseasonal forecasting of the 2009 summer and winter Australian heat waves using POAMA. Weather and Forecasting. 26, 257-279.

Langford, S. and Hendon, H., 2011: Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability. CAWCR Technical Report No. 039

Langford, S., Hendon, H.H. and Lim. E-P., 2011: Assessment of POAMA’s predictions of some climate indices for use as predictors of Australian rainfall. CAWCR Technical Report No. 031

Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, D. L. T. Anderson, A. Charles and O. Alves, 2011: Dynamical, statistical-dynamical and multi-model ensemble forecasts of Australian spring season rainfall. Mon. Wea. Rev. vol.139, 958-975.

Marshall, A.G., D. Hudson, M.C. Wheeler, H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves., 2011: Assessing the Simulation and Prediction of Rainfall Associated with the MJO in the POAMA Seasonal Forecast System. Climate Dynamics., 37, 2129-2141, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0948-2

Okely, P., Alves, O., Hudson, D., Yin, Y., 2011: Towards coupled data assimilation: coupled covariance structures. CAWCR Research Letters, 7, CAWCR, Australia.

Risbey, J.S., P.C. McIntosh, M.J. Pook, H.A. Rashid, and T. Hirst, 2011: Evaluation of rainfall drivers and teleconnections in an ACCESS AMIP run. Aust. Meteorol. Oceanographic J., 61, 91-95.

Spillman CM, 2011: Advances in forecasting coral bleaching conditions for reef management. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92:1586-1591.

Spillman C.M., 2011: Operational real-time seasonal forecasts for coral reef management. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 4(1):13-22. Awarded the 2011 IMarEST Denny Medal (JOO).

Spillman CM, 2011: Real-time predictions of coral bleaching risk for the Great Barrier Reef: Summer 2010/2011. CAWCR Research Letters, 6:34-39.

Spillman C.M., Alves O. and Hudson D.A., 2011: Seasonal prediction of thermal stress accumulation for coral bleaching in the tropical oceans. Monthly Weather Review, 139:317-331.

Spillman CM, Alves O, Hudson DA, Hobday AJ, Hartog JR, 2011: Using dynamical seasonal forecasts in marine management. In Chan, F., Marinova, D. and Anderssen, R.S. (eds) MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011, pp. 2163-2169. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7.

Spillman CM, Heron SF, Jury MR, Anthony KRN, 2011: Climate change and carbon threats to coral reefs: National Meteorological and ocean services as sentinels. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92:1581-1586.

Wang, G., D. Hudson, Y. Ying, O. Alves, H. Hendon, S. Langford, G. Liu, and F. Tseitkin, 2011: POAMA-2 SST Skill Assessment and Beyond. CAWCR Research Letters, 6, 40-46.

Xue, Y., M.A. Balmaseda, T. Boyer, N. Ferry, S. Good, I. Ishikawa, M. Rienecker, T. Rosati, Y. Yin, A. Kumar, 2011: Comparative analysis of upper ocean heat content variability from ensemble operational ocean analyses. U.S. CLIVAR Variations, 9(1), 7-10.

Yin, Y., O. Alves, and P. R. Oke, 2011: An ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 786-808.


Jury MR, Heron SF, Spillman CM, Anthony KRN, 2010: Climate, Carbon and Coral Reefs. Expert brochure commissioned by the WMO for distribution at the COP-10 session of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in October 2010, Nagoya, Japan.

Li, S., H.H. Hendon, O. Alves, M.C. Wheeler, D. Anderson, and Guomin Wang, 2010: On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/98 El Niño. Climate Dyn., (in press).

Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin, G. Wang, D. Hudson, M. Zhao and L. Shi, 2010: Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical Indo-Pacific SST and Australian rainfall with improved ocean initial conditions. CAWCR Tech. Rep. No. 032.

Rashid, H.A., H.H. Hendon, M.C. Wheeler, and O. Alves, 2010: Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. Climate Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0754-x

Spillman C.M., Hudson D.A. and Alves O., 2010: Real-time seasonal SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef during the summer of 2009/2010. CAWCR Research Letters, 4:11-19.

Zhao, M., G. Wang, H.H.Hendon, and O.Alves, 2010: Impact of including ocean surface currents on simulation of Indian Ocean variability with the POAMA coupled. Climate Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0823-1

Zhu, H. and Hendon, H., 2010: Convection and MJO performance in UM7.1. CAWCR Technical Report No. 022


Hendon, H.H., E. Lim, G. Wang, O. Alves, and D. Hudson, 2009: Prospects for predicting two flavors of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19713, DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040100

Hendon, H.H., and G. Wang, 2009: Seasonal prediction of the Leeuwin Current using the POAMA dynamical seasonal forecast model. Climate Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0570-3.

Li, S., O. Alves, H.H. Hendon, G. Wang, and D. Anderson, 2009: The role of stochastic forcing in ensemble forecasts of the 1997/98 El Niño. J. Climate, 22, 2526-2540.

Lim, E.-P., H.H. Hendon, D. Hudson, G. Wang, and O. Alves, 2009: Dynamical forecasts of inter-El Niño variations of tropical SST and Australian springtime rainfall. Mon.Wea. Rev., 137,3796-3810.

Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin, M. Zhao, G. Wang, D. Hudson and G. Liu, 2009: Impact of SST bias correction on prediction of ENSO and Australian winter rainfall. CAWCR Research Letters Issue 3, 22-29.

Marshall, A.G., O.Alves, and Hendon, H.H., 2009: A coupled GCM analysis of MJO activity at the onset of El Niño. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 966-983, doi:10.1175/2008JAS2855.1

Maynard J.A., Johnson J.E., Marshall P.A., Goby G., Schuttenberg H. and Spillman C.M., 2009: A strategic framework for responding to coral bleaching events in a changing climate. Journal of Environmental Management, 44:1-11.

Spillman C.M. and Alves O., 2009: Dynamical seasonal prediction of summer sea surface temperatures in the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs 28:197-206.

Spillman C.M., Alves O., Hudson D.A. and Charles A.N., 2009: POAMA SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef: Summer 2008/2009. CAWCR Research Letters, 2:30-34.

Spillman C.M., Alves O., Hudson D.A. and Charles A.N., 2009: New Operational Seasonal SST Products for Prediction of Coral Bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 22:112-114.

Wang B, Li J-Y, Kang I-S, Shukla J, Park C-K, Kumar A, Schemm J, Cocke S, Kug J-S, Luo J-J, Fu X, Yun W-T, Alves O, Jin E, Kinter J, Kirtman B, Krishnamurti T, Lau N, Lau W, Liu P, Pegion P, Rosati T, Schubert S, Stern W, Suarez M and Yamagate T, 2009: Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14 model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980-2004), 2009. Clim Dyn., 33, 93-117.

Zhao, M., and H.H. Hendon, 2009: Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in the POAMA seasonal forecast model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 337-352.


G. Wang, O. Alves, D. Hudson, H. Hendon, G. Liu, and F. Tseitkin, 2008: SST skill assessment from the new POAMA-1.5 System. BMRC Research Letter No.8

Marshall, A., O. Alves, and H. Hendon, 2008: An enhanced moisture convergence-evaporation feedback mechanism for MJO air/sea interaction. J. Atmos. Sci. Vol. 65, no. 3, pp. 970-986.


H. Hendon and G. Wang, 2007: Seasonal Prediction of the Leeuwin Current. CLAVAR Exchanges, Vol. 12, No. 4.

Wang, G. and Hendon, H. H., 2007: Sensitivity of Australian rainfall to inter-El Niño variations. Journal of Climate. Vol. 20, no. 16, pp. 4211-4226.


Hendon, H.H., A. Zhong, and O. Alves, 2006: Intrinsic coupled variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. (in revision J. Climate).

Marshall A.G., O. Alves, H.H. Hendon, and M.C. Wheeler, 2006: A wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis of intraseasonal variability in the standard BMRC atmosphere general circulation model. BMRC research report No. 122, Bur. Met. Australia.

Waliser, D., K. Weickmann, R. Dole, S. Schubert, O. Alves, C. Jones, M. Newman, H.-L. Pan, A. Roubicek, S. Saha, C. Smith, H. van den Dool, F. Vitart, M. Wheeler, and J. Whitaker, 2006: The experimental MJO prediction project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, April 2006.

Zhang, C., M. Dong, S. Gualdi, H.H. Hendon, E.D. Maloney, A. Marshall, K.R. Sperber, and W. Wang, 2006: Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in four pairs of coupled and uncoupled global models. Climate Dynamics, 27, 573-592.


Alves. O. and C. Robert, 2005: Tropical Pacific ocean model error covariances from Monte Carlo simulations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Vol. 131, no. 613, pp. 3643-3658.

Oke, P. R., A. Schiller, D. A. Griffin and G. B. Brassington, 2005: Ensemble data assimilation for an eddy-resolving ocean model of the Australian region. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.]. Vol. 131, no. 613, pp. 3301-3311.

Zhong, A., H.H. Hendon, and O. Alves, 2005: Indian Ocean variability and its association with ENSO in a global coupled model. J. Climate, 18, 3634-3649.

2004 and before

Alves, O., G. Wang, A. Zhong, N. Smith, F. Tseitkin, G. Warren, A. Schiller, S. Godfrey and G. Meyers, 2003: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Science for drought: Proceedings of the National Drought Forum, Brisbane, Apr 2003, R. Stone and I. Partridge, Eds. Department of Primary Industries, 49-56.

Schiller, A. and J.S. Godfrey, 2003: Indian Ocean Intraseasonal Variability in an Ocean General Circulation Model. J. Clim. Vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 21-39.

Alves, O., G. Wang, A. Zhong, N. Smith, G. Warren, A. Marshall, F. Tzeitkin, and A. Schiller, 2002: POAMA: Bureau of Meteorology operational coupled model seasonal forecast system. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on the Role of the Upper Ocean in Medium and Extended Range Forecasting.

Alves, O., 2001: Ocean initial conditions and ENSO forecasts. Proceedings of the 13th BMRC Modelling Workshop. The climate of Australia and the Indo-Pacific region, Nov 2001.

Feng, M., G. Meyers, S. Wijffels, 2001: Interannual upper ocean variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 4151-4154.

Feng, M. and G. Meyers, 2002: Interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean: A two-year time scale of IOD. J. Mar. Res. (submitted).

Godfrey, J.S., E. F. Bradley, P. A. Coppin, L. F Pender, T. J. McDougall, E. W. Schulz and I. Helmond, 1999: Measurements of upper ocean heat and freshwater budgets near a drifting buoy in the equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res.104, 13269-13302

McIntosh, P., 2000: Connecting climate model forecasts with agricultural management systems. Report on a LWRRDC COR5 Workshop. CSIRO Marine Research (informal report), 13pp.

Schiller, A., 1999: How well does a coarse resolution circulation model simulate observed interannual variability in the upper Indian Ocean? Geophys. Res. Letters 26, 1485-1488.

Schiller, A., J. S. Godfrey, P. McIntosh, G. Meyers and R. Fiedler, 2000: Interannual dynamics and thermodynamics of the Indo-Pacific Oceans. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30, 987-1012.

Schiller, A., 2001: Improving Climate Simulations in the Tropical Oceans. IUTAM Symposium on Advances in Mathematical Modelling of Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics. Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Schiller, A., 2002: Seasonal-to-Interannual Water-Mass Formation in the Upper Tropical Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. (C Oceans). Vol. 108, no. C4

Wang, G., R. Kleeman, N. Smith, and F. Tseitkin, 2000: Seasonal prediction with a coupled global ocean-atmosphere model. BMRC Research Report No 77, Bur. Met., Melbourne, Australia, 34 pp.

Wang, G., R. Kleeman, N. Smith, and F. Tseitkin, 2001: The BMRC coupled general circulation model ENSO forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev. 130, 975-991.

Wang, G., O. Alves, N. Smith and F. Tseitkin, 2001: The new version of the BMRC coupled general circulation seasonal forecasting model. Proceeding of the 13th BMRC Modelling Workshop. The climate of Australia and the Indo-Pacific region, Nov 2001.

Zhong, A., R. Coleman, N. Smith, M. Naughton, L. Rikus, K. Puri and F. Tseitkin, 2001: Ten-year AMIP 1 Climatologies from versions of the BMRC Atmospheric Model. BMRC Research Report No 83, Bur. Met., Melbourne, Australia, 34 pp.

Zhong, A., O. Alves, A. Schiller, G. Wang, F. Tseitkin and N. Smith, 2001: A new version of the BMRC coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model for seasonal predictions: a brief description. BMRC Research Report. (status: review stage)