SSTA Forecast Skill
To evaluate the accuracy of model forecasts and provide a measure of the skill of the model, POAMA v2.4 hindcasts of SST anomalies are compared to observed SST anomalies for 1982-2010. SST anomalies are calculated for both the model forecasts and observed values as the difference between SST values and the relevant climatology. The climatology is the monthly mean SST over the period indicated, computed relative to start month and lead-time for the model, and removing this from SST values reduces the effects of any model bias (Stockdale 1997).
Skill is calculated by correlating model anomalies with observed anomalies in both space and time. The correlation coefficient (r) is defined as the ratio of the covariance of the sample populations to the product of their standard deviations, with a skill value of 1.0 indicating a perfect fit between model and observed values. For more information see Spillman and Alves (2009).
For hindcast skill information for the old POAMA 1.5b system, click here. For details of the POAMA 1.5b SST real-time system and model performance analysis:
- Spillman CM, Alves O, Hudson DA, Charles AN (2009) POAMA SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef: Summer 2008/2009. CAWCR Research Letters, 2:30-34.
- Spillman CM, Hudson DA, Alves O (2010) Real-time seasonal SST predictions for the Great Barrier Reef during the summer of 2009/2010. CAWCR Research Letters, 4:11-19