SEACI Forecasts
Please note that the following products are experimental only and do not currently form part of the Bureau's standard services in any way. Access to the products are only made available for research purposes and on the basis that the users are fully aware that these products are still being tested and are subject to the Bureau's copyright and disclaimer
South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a partnership involving government and industry investigating the causes and impacts of climate change and climate variability across south eastern Australia. The seasonal forecasting theme is investigating the reliability of climate forecast with lead times of three to twelve months. The Murray-Darling basin is a region of particular interest, as one of Australia's largest river basins and foremost agricultural regions.
Murray-Darling Basin Rainfall forecasts
The plot below shows the ensemble distribution of forecast precipitation, averaged over the Murray-Darling basin from the POAMA real time system. The graph shows the anomaly in standard deviations of the model's hindcast climatology for accumulated daily precipitation averaged over one month. The shading indicates the climatological terciles of the POAMA model over the hindcast period 1980-2006.
Monthly Tercile Distribution
Forecast skill
One measure of forecast skill is correlation with observed seasonal trends. The plot below shows the correlation of the POAMA 1.5 system's rainfall prediction with observed rainfall for the same regions, over a hindcast period from 1980 until 2006.
Regional averages realtime forecast archive.
Regional averages hindcast archive.
For further information: email the POAMA group
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