Experimental Great Barrier Reef Coral Bleaching SST Forecasts from POAMA-1.5

Please note that the following products are experimental only and do not currently form part of the Bureau's standard services in any way. Access to the products are only made available for research purposes and on the basis that the users are fully aware that these products are still being tested and are subject to the Bureau's copyright and disclaimer

Mass Coral Bleaching Events in the Great Barrier Reef

Sea surface temperature (SST) is now recognised as the primary cause of regional or mass, coral bleaching events (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999). Coral bleaching results from the loss of symbiotic algae, known as zooxantheallae, from coral tissues during times of stress, often due to SSTs higher than the coral colony's tolerance level (Liu et al. 2003). The most significant mass coral bleaching event recorded in the Great Barrier Reef (Queensland, Australia) occurred during 2002, where up to 60% of reefs surveyed were affected (Berkelmans et al. 2003), and 5% were severely damaged.

For more information on coral bleaching and climate change impacts on reefs refer to the Great Barrier Reef Marnie Park Authority.

Remote sensing data products, e.g. ReefTemp, and seasonal forecasts from models such as POAMA can be used to detect anomalous SSTs. These products have revolutionised the way in which coral bleaching events are monitored and assessed in the Great Barrier Reef and Coral Sea.

Experimental SST Anomaly Forecasts

The following plots show the latest experimental sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts from POAMA V1.5 at lead times of 0-7 months for the Great Barrier Reef region. Plots are updated daily and based on the ensemble mean of the last 30 forecasts. Figures can be enlarged by clicking directly on them.

References:
Berkelmans, R., De'ath, G., Kininmonth, S. and Skirving, W., 2004. A comparison of the 1998 and 2002 coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef: spatial correlation, patterns and predictions. Coral Reefs 23(1): 74-83.
Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999. Coral bleaching, climate change and the future of the world's coral reefs. Review, Marine and Freshwater Research, 50: 839-866.
Liu, G., Strong, A.E. and Skirving, W., 2003. Remote sensing of sea surface temperatures during 2002 Barrier Reef coral bleaching. EOS 18(15): 137-144.

Last updated: 31 July 2007

Skill of Great Barrier Reef SST forecasts

For more plots:
Spatial maps realtime forecast archive.
Spatial maps hindcast archive.

 

For further information: email the POAMA group

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